Places that thrive in today’s knowledge based economy are distinctive, attractive, and rich in amenities. A strong Urban Core gives knowledge-based professionals the quality of life they prefer. -- International Economic Development Council, 2007

50% of Americans prefer an urban model of living-walkable downtowns, smaller living spaces, and mixed-use development.
-- Volk and Zimmerman

There are currently over $500 million dollars in downtown development projects under construction or on-line.
--Downtown Development Authority, 2007

These projects range from mixed-use, residential, and commercial developments.
--Downtown Development Authority, 2007

Since 2004, more than 250 new residential units have opened downtown, 384 are under construction and 276 are in the planning stage.
--Downtown Development Authority, 2006
--Lexington Herald-Leader Editorial, October 1, 2006

Over 27,000 people work downtown, there are over 80 places to eat and shop, there are 15 local and national historic neighborhoods, and numerous art galleries, theatres, and concert halls.
--Downtown Development Authority, 2006

The second favorite thing Lexingtonians like about their city is downtown.
-- LFUCG Division of Planning, Comprehensive Update Library Survey, 2005

Despite these trends, we still have work to do. Although Lexington-Fayette County is the 10th most college-educated city in the U.S., Forbes ranked Lexington 120th in job growth, 157th in culture and leisure, and 200th in income growth out of 200 U.S places for business careers. This is an alarming trend, considering Lexington relies on payroll taxes for 85% of its revenues.
-- U.S. Census Bureau, 2007
-- Forbes, 2007

In addition, KY ranks 45th in knowledge-based jobs and 49th in economic dynamism.
-- The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 2007.

To expand the urban service area at this time will take needed markets and resources away from downtown during a critical stage of its rebirth-undermining our ability to recruit and retain knowledge-based professionals.

Vacant land within the current urban service boundary can accommodate Lexington’s growth for the near future.

According to a study done by the LFUCG Division of Planning, land within the current urban service area has the capacity to absorb approximately a decade of future growth.

As of December 2005, we had 5,431 acres of vacant residential land, 916 acres of vacant industrial land, and 687 acres of vacant commercial land within the current urban service area.
-- The LFUCG Division of Planning Vacant Land Analysis, 2005

Even if we continue to accommodate future population growth in the ways we always have, it will take over 10 years to consume our vacant commercial land, over 17 years to consume our vacant industrial land, and nine years to consume our vacant residential land.
-- The LFUCG Division of Planning Vacant Land Analysis, 2005

In fact, 9,518 acres, or 14 square miles of additional Fayette County farmland will be needed to accommodate 20 years of future growth at current land consumption rates. Over the last five years, 2,500 homes have been built each year in Fayette County.
-- The LFUCG Division of Planning, 2006

The downtown area alone can support the construction of 424 housing units per year.  Presumably, this number could increase if you consider infill properties located throughout the entire urban service boundary.
-- Zimmerman & Volk, 2004

We need to re-define our notion of capacity, and establish a visionary land use system by which we can responsibly grow up, not out.

We need this change, because our current notion of capacity is not environmentally responsible or feasible.

For example, from 2000 to 2005, Lexington's population grew a little over 3%, and yet housing increased 9.8%.
-- U.S. Census Bureau

If we change the way we think about capacity, we will not only save our farms and other resources, we may also improve our air quality by reducing our dependence on automobile transportation. A badly needed change, considering that Kentucky 7th in the country in carbon dioxide pollution.
--“Kentucky 7th in rising CO2 Emissions”,The Lexington Herald-Leader, June 21, 2006.

Clearly, we can afford to hold the line on expanding the urban service boundary now, and reassess the need for expansion in another five years.

How long will interest rates stay low?

Over the past five years, interest rates have been good and developers in Fayette County have constructed an average 2,500 houses a year.
-- The LFUCG Division of Planning, 2006

We should not blindly expand the urban service area to accommodate this kind of construction rate when we don’t know if interest rates will hold up, and when many of these homes sit empty. For instance, the real estate market in Fayette County is declining.

In 2005, Fayette County had 13,086 vacant housing units, or 10.25% of total housing stock.
-- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

In Fall 2006, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, whose district includes this region, said signs are that "the bottom of the market has yet to be found."
-- Lexington Herald-Leader Editorial, October 1, 2006

In 2007, Fayette County had a 33.7% increase in foreclosures.
--Lexington Herald Leader, September 11th, 2007.

Construction of new homes in Fayette County is down 20% from 1997.
-- U.S. Department of Commerce, 2007

To create development plans based on past low interest rates is not sound land use planning.

72% of all new residents in Lexington are singles and childless couples under the age of 30.
-- Zimmerman & Volk, 2004

And, on average, only 2.3 persons live in Fayette County households.
-- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

By 2010, nearly 75% of households will not have children at home.
-- Bluegrass Tomorrow, 2007

In light of these recent trends, many people need and want smaller living quarters, and the urban interior can accommodate their needs.

Many Lexingtonians want to live in the urban interior because they don’t want to deal with traffic and their families are getting smaller. In fact, the "cost of owning and operating one car is estimated to be $10,000 a year-which roughly translates to a $100,000 mortgage."
"In Housing, Smaller is Big", Planning, the American Planning Association, December 2006.

In addition, 34% of new jobs will pay less than $20,000/yr. Downtowns are the most affordable place to live because amenities and essential services are close to residential development-substantially cutting transportation costs.
-- Bluegrass Tomorrow, 2007

Unlike the National Average in which downtown property is 2 times the cost of suburban property, the average downtown property is 1 ½ times the cost of suburban property in Lexington-Fayette County.
-- Business Lexington, October 5th 2007

 

In light of these facts, we have the capacity to support future growth, and an expansion of the urban service boundary is not needed at this time.